Client's Access to
Eurozone Advisors Research

EZA Report and Briefing Service

Confidential research reports and client briefing papers. 

If you are not currently a client please view our selection of SAMPLE REPORTS

 
Report 758 19 Sep 06 Germany - Politics
German state elections - protest vote deals blow to Merkel, expect more delays in structural reform projects and less incentive for fiscal rectitude.
Report 757 04 Sep 06 ECB Observer - ECB Council Post-Meeting Assessment - September 2006
 25bp likely Oct, further 25bp Dec, further tightening to 3.75%/4% "neutral" H107, possible 4.25%/4.5% H207  -  regular four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 756 04 Sep 06 Germany, France, Euro Area - Economy
Mid-cycle slowdown or landing? Germany and euro area in synch but for how long? Inflation outlook in 2007 seems fairly priced into bond yields, but setbacks might spell risks in the near term. Stocks seem good value relative to prospects of sustained growth.
Report 755 29 Aug 06 ECB Observer- ECB Council Meeting Preview - September2006
ECB 31 August Council Preview; no rise in rates expected Thursday but 25bp expected Oct or Nov with further 25bp around end of year
Report 754 22 Aug 06 Germany - Politics / Reform
Healthcare Wage Agreement; substantial rise in pay for hospital doctors signals a further loss of influence for Ver.di
Report 753 10 Jul 06 ECB Observer - ECB Council Post-Meeting Assessment - August 2006
Trichet signals further rises in coming months -  regular four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 752 03 Aug 06 ECB Observer- ECB Council Meeting Preview - August 2006
25bp expected Thursday, possibly two more hikes by end 2006
Report 751 12 Jul 06 Poland - Politics
Kaczynski taking the reigns heightens the risk of a negative policy shift, but his awareness of capital markets, his weak political standing and his interest in economic prosperity should be disciplining forces. Any market sell-off should not be regarded as fundamentally justified
Report 750 11 Jul 06 Germany - Politics / Reform
Healthcare reform - route to open market remains long haul
Report 749 10 Jul 06 ECB Observer - ECB Council Post-Meeting Assessment - July 2006
Trichet signals 25bp likely 3 Aug as policy stance shifts to "exercise strong vigilence" -  regular four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 748 04 Jul 06 Germany - Politics / Reform
Constitutional reform - streamlining decisions and competition positive for markets
Report 747 04 Jul 06 ECB Observer- ECB Council Meeting Preview - July 2006
No rate rise seen Thursday, 25bp likely Aug, further 25 bp by December, with 3.75% 'REFI' rate expected mid-2007
Report 746 29 Jun 06 ECB Observer - Staff Changes
Job changes in ECB and Bundesbank Exec Boards signal no change in policy - but slight tilt of balance of influence within the Governing Council from the Executive Board members towards the national central bank govenors.
Report 745 29 Jun 06 Germany - Industry Outlook
Consumption recovery not fully priced into retail stocks
Report 744 12 Jun 06 ECB Observer - ECB Council Post-Meeting Assessment - June 06
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate pictur -   further 25bp likely August 31
Report 743 08 Jun 06 Germany - Labour Market Reform
Political constraints reduce scope for job creation and consumption
Report 742 06 Jun 06 ECB Observer- ECB Council Meeting Preview - June 06
ECB 8 June Council Preview; 25bp expected Thursday, with further 25bp later this summer, 3.75% by mid-2007 likely
Report 741 16 May 06 Germany - Fiscal Policy
Tax estimate & 2007 budget propose sounder fiscal policy, political environment positive but risks remain
Report 740 15 May 06 Italy - Politics
Napolitano nomination paves way for Prodi government; increased stability but likely offset by concessions on economic reform
Report 739 12 May 06 Germany - Reform
Health Care Reform - gradual steps towards competition but unlikely to reach key objectives
Report 738 08 May 06 ECB Observer- ECB Council Post-Meeting Assessment - May 06
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate pictur -  Trichet remarks reinforce EZA view: 25 bp increase in June with further increases to 3.75%-4.0% by mid 2007
Report 737 02 May 06 ECB Observer- ECB Council Meeting Preview - May 06
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 736 26 Apr 06 Germany - Wage Settlements
Wage settlement sets precedent for company specific wage negotiations; boost for small & medium size firms
Report 735 19 Apr 06 France - Politics
CPE turmoil may leave France in less bad shape than consensus view
Report 734 12 Apr 06 Italy - Politics
Narrow victory for Prodi paves way for new coalitions, negative fallout should be contained
Report 733 06 Mar 06 ECB Observer- ECB Council Post-Meeting Assessment - April 06
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture -  strong signals for June rate rise as part of "process of normalisation"
Report 732 04 Apr 06 ECB Observer- ECB Council Meeting Preview - April 06
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome -  25bp expected June and possibly 100bp more to 3.75% by mid 2007
Report 731 29 Mar 06 Italy - Politics
Key issues for upcoming elections
Report 730 28 Mar 06 Germany - Politics
State elections confirm status quo but endorse gradual reform
Report 729 06 Mar 06 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 728 27 Feb 06 ECB Observer- March Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 727 24 Feb 06 Poland - Economic and Political Outlook
Favourable economy amidst political storms
Report 726 21 Feb 06 Germany - Constitutional Reform
Constitutional reform paves way for more efficient government, boost for reform process
Report 725 08 Feb 06 Germany - Labour Market Reforms
Labour market in transition (1) - according to an estimate of the ifo institute in line with the OECD, about 30% of Germany’s economic under performance relative to the rest of the euro area relates to the poor functioning of the job market. EZA will monitor and provide updates on the key themes influencing the German job market in a series of briefing papers over the coming months. This first report is designed to provide an overview of the current situation and highlight the key political and economic themes
Report 724 06 Feb 06 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 723 30 Jan 06 ECB Observer- February Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 722 30 Jan 06 Germany - Property Sector
Funds' crisis - heralding a new dawn for German properties?
Report 721 15 Jan 06 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 720 13 Jan 06 Germany - Banking Sector
German banking sector on the road to recovery - influencing factors and asset conclusions
Report 719 10 Jan 06 ECB Observer- January Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 718 06 Jan 06 ECB Observer- Changing Faces at the Governing Council
Dragi to bring pragmatic, rather than doctrinaire, approach to Governing Council's monetary policy deliberations policy. Stark equally has a pragmatic approach but not a foregone conclusion that, if appointed, he would be given Issing's Chief Economist role
Report 717 13 Dec 05 Germany - Wage Alert
Four IG Metall - claim at high end of expectation; negative for consumer related stocks
Report 716 04 Dec 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 715 30 Nov 05 ECB Observer- December Meeting Preview - Data Update
Key data released and the potential implications for  the ECB council
Report 714 29 Nov 05 Germany & France vs Euro Area - Economic Outlook
Converging growth trajectories within the Euro area; Germany as the risk factor, France the stabiliser
Report 713 28 Nov 05 ECB Observer- December Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 712 24 Nov 05 ECB Observer- Inter-meeting up-date
Change of view
Report 711 15 Nov 05 Germany - Politics
Coalition agreement; sounder public finances, bad news for jobs
Report 710 10 Nov 05 France  - Politics
After the riots; economic & political consequences
Report 709 06 Nov 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 708 04 Nov 05 Germany - Sector / Industry Outlook
Investment & construction related stocks should outperform, pulling consumer and financial stocks along
Report 707 31 Oct 05 ECB Observer- November Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 706 19 Oct 05 Germany - Politics
Emerging Grand Coalition - fiscal consolidation and slow reform
Report 705 10 Oct 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 704 03 Oct 05 ECB Observer- October Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 703 28 Sep 05 Poland - Politics
Election update
- central scenario remains the same after Kaczynski PM withdrawal

The withdrawal by Jaroslaw Kaczynski from consideration for the position of prime minister and his replacement with the PiS economic expert, Kazimierz Marcinkiewicz does not alter our central scenario (EZA702). Kaczynski’s withdrawal may bolster his party’s position in the negotiation with the PO on a new government and speed up the government formation process. The move may also support his brother’s position, Lech Kaczynski, in the presidential race. Equally clients should not rule out the possibility that the withdrawal is only temporary. EZA

Report 702 27 Sep 05 Poland - Politics
Election update
- centre right coalition overall reform positive but less positive for fiscal tightening & structural reforms
Report 701 26 Sep 05 Germany - Politics
Election update
- grand coalition with chancellor Merkel and modest reform - political drag on German assets
Report 700 20 Sep 05 Germany - Politics
Election update - "Jamaica" coalition more positive for reform than grand coalition
Report 699 12 Sep 05 Germany - Politics
Election update -increased chance of grand coalition - negative implications for reform / political stability
Report 698 06 Sep 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 697 29 Aug 05 ECB Observer- SeptemberMeeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 696 17 Aug 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 695 10 Aug 05 Germany - Politics
Election update - CDU campaign loses momentum, but narrow victory still likely
Report 694 03 Aug 05 Poland - Economy & Politics
Outlook - elections likely to yield market friendly out come but risks from fiscal policy
Report 693 01 Aug 05 ECB Observer- August Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 692 14 Jul 05 Germany - Politics
Election preview - CDU manifesto leans toward market reforms
Report 691 10 Jul 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 690 05 Jul 05 ECB Observer- July Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 689 05 Jul 05 Euro Economy
Germany vs Euro Area - economic outlook
Report 688 23 Jun 05 Euro - Politics
Constitution/budget setbacks not catastrophe for EU / EMU but risks remain
Report 687 22 Jun 05 Germany - Sectoral Analysis
Industry outlook - investment and exports taking a breather, consumer services gradually recovering
Report 686 20 Jun 05 ECB Observer- Briefing
Press speculation of early ECB rate cut should be discounted
Report 685 15 Jun 05 Italy - Politics
Serious undermining of SGP credability likely, further pressure on euro, widening bond spreads
Report 684 07 Jun 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 683 30 May 05 ECB Observer- June Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 682 24 May 05 Germany - Politics
Snap elections in Sep likely pave way for change in govt ending political paralysis
Report 681 11 May 05 Germany - Sectoral Analysis
Banking sector; undergoing profound change - update
Report 680 10 May 05 France - Politics / referendum
"yes" comes back from (almost) nowhere but likely outcome remains "no"
Report 679 09 May 05 France - Sectoral Analysis
Sectoral outlook -services to companies and construction sector to outperform
Report 678 05 May 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 677 03 May 05 ECB Observer- May Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 676 02 May 05 France - Politics / Referendum
Update: French referendum - yes campaign picks up but likeliest outcome remains "no"
Report 675 21 Apr 05 France - Politics / Referendum
Alert; further increased risk of referendum "no"
Report 674 18 Apr 05 Germany - Politics / Reform
Political agreement on small scale reforms a positive signal for continuation of reform process before elections
Report 673 11 Apr 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 672 05 Apr 05 ECB Observer- April Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 671 31 Mar 05 Poland - Economy / Politics
Poland update - NBP starts rate cut cycle amidst political uncertainty
Report 670 28 Mar 05 France - Politics / Referendum
Alert; further increased risk of referendum "no"
Report 669 24 Mar 05 France - Politics / Referendum
Risk of referendum "no" increases to 60%
Report 668 21 Mar 05 Germany - Politics / Reform
Political agreement on small scale reforms a positive signal for continuation of reform process before elections
Report 667 21 Mar 05 ECB Observer-Executive Board
Bini Smaghi recommendation: no shift in emphasis of monetary policy due to changeover, reinforces expectation of German successor to Issing
Report 666 07 Mar 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 665 03 Mar 05 ECB Observer- March Meeting Preview - DATA UPDATE
Latest data maintains view that rates on hold even into 2006
Report 664 01 Mar 05 Strategy - Demography - Special Report
Demographic trends and the conclusions for economy, capital markets and asset allocation - 14 pages
Report 663 28 Feb 05 ECB Observer- March Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 662 22 Feb 05 Euro - Politics
Economic performance key driver in all three polls; Spain, Portugal, Germany
Report 661 18 Feb 05 Germany - Reform
Public sector modernisation long term positive for German bonds
Report 660 15 Feb 05 Germany - Economy
GDP data likely marks trough within broader picture of economic recovery
Report 659 07 Feb 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 658 02 Feb 05 ECB Observer- February Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 657 01 Feb 05 Germany - Politics - Education Reform
University fees mark turning point in education policy, positive for Germanys competitive position
Report 656 28 Jan 05 Germany - Labour Market
Record-level German unemployment should mark turning point for the better in German labour market
Report 655 19 Jan 05 Germany - Economic Outlook vs the Eurozone
German catch-up with euro area growth stalls as export engine hit by weaker target markets - part of a regular series of reports in cluding asset conclusions
Report 654 17 Jan 05 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 653 12 Jan 05 ECB Observer- Data Update -January Meeting Preview
GDP Data and Growth forecasts do not tip the balance towards early rise
Report 652 11 Jan 05 ECB Observer- Data Update -January Meeting Preview
Data reinforces EZA view: balance has tilted away from inflation concerns, rates likely on hold into 2006
Report 651 04 Jan 05 ECB Observer- January Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 650 14 Dec 04 Germany - Politics / Reform
CDU congress - assessment for reform process
Report 649 10 Dec 04 Germany - Banking Sector
German Banks; lending, Basle II, and the shake-up of the public banking sector
Report 648 06 Dec 04 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 647 01 Dec 04 ECB Observer- Data Update - December Meeting Preview
Latest data confirms EZA view - rates likely on hold to late 2005
Report 646 30 Nov 04 ECB Observer- December Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 645 28 Nov 04 France - Equities - Sectoral Outlook
Mini-spending boom over, consumption slackens, GDP returns to long term trend of (<2%)
Report 644 23 Nov 04 Germany - Equities - Sectoral Outlook
Orders and DIHK bi-annual reports show shift from exports towards investment
Report 643 12 Nov 04 Germany - Economy
Tax estimate and 2005 budget - little respite for Eichel
Report 642 08 Nov 04 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 641 02 Nov 04 ECB Observer- November Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 640 27 Oct 04 Germany - Politics / Reform
Opposition parties - reformers in retreat
Report 639 14 Oct 04 Poland - Economy & Politics
Six months after EU accession - economic and political assessment; short term interest rates close to cyclical peak, securing positive outlook for inflation and bonds. Upgrade by rating agencies depends on next years elections to produce a stable government
Report 638 11 Oct 04 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 637 05 Oct 04 ECB Observer- October Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Alert 636 01Oct 04 France - Politics
"Yes" chances improved by prospective referendum on Turkish EU entry
Report 635 28 Sep 04 France - Politics
Referendum "No" much closer call than polls suggest
Report 634 23 Sep 04 Germany - Economy
Germany vs Eurozone, catching up on growth, trailing on inflation
Report 633 20 Sep 04 Germany - Politics/reform
Germany, elections setback for reform but medium term "grand coalition" less reform-negative
Report 632 13 Sep 04 Germany - Economy/reform
Labour market reform - work in progress - little near term impact on ECB policy
Report 631 05 Sep 04 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Four page analysis of the key themes brought out in the press conference, the data, and what this means for short and longer term interest rate picture
Report 630 31Aug 04 ECB Observer- September Meeting Preview
Six page analysis of the key factors which will influence the ECB council including an assessment of the likely outcome
Report 629 09 Aug 04 Germany - Economy/reform
Labour market reform - work in progress - little near term impact on ECB policy
Report 628 04 Aug 04 ECB Observer - Data update
Köhler election positive for German reform process
Report 627 03 Aug 04 UK - MPC Preview
Expect 25bp tightening, but 2005 rate outlook more favourable
Report 626 02 Aug 04 ECB Observer- August Meeting Preview
Rate move highly unlikely, balance of inflation risk tilts slightly toward upside
Report 625 26 Jul 04 Germany - Economy
The German euro area dilemma: powerhouse for exports but economy continues to struggle
Report 624 16 Jul 04 ECB Observer
ECB "Watchers" Conference, Frankfurt - analysis & commentary
Report 623 07 Jul 04 Germany - Equities
Sectoral Outlook - investment and export related sectors dominate modest recovery
Report 622 05 Jul 04 UK - MPC Preview
Expect no change in policy at July MPC - data suggests shallow interest rate cycle with rates likely to fall in 2005
Report 621 05 Jul 04 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
Slight bias (unstated) towards distant tightening
Report 620 30 Jun 04 ECB Observer - July Meeting Preview
Rate move highly unlikely, prospects mixed but slight bias towards distant tightening
Report 619 25 Jun 04 Germany - Economy
Draft Budget - fiscal expansion disguised by privatisation proceeds
Report 618 16 Jun 04 Germany - Politics
EU, Thuringia elections; blow for Schroder, reform momentum stalled
Report 617 11 Jun 04 Poland - Convergence
Process remains complicated by political uncertainty, NBP to protect inflation target by tightening at least 100bp by end 04, dilemma of achieving both fiscal and inflation criteria for 2008
Report 616 08 Jun 04 UK - MPC Preview
25bp move likely but different rate profile to market expectation
Report 615 06 Jun 04 ECB Observer- Post Meeting Assessment
ECB next move likely upwards but some way off
Report 614 02 Jun 04 ECB Observer - June Meeting Preview
ECB rate move most unlikely: economic outlook still mixed
Report 613 26 May 04 Euro - Economy
Oil price and euro exchange rate impact on; inflation, activity, ECB
Report 612 24 May 04 Germany - Politics
Köhler election positive for German reform process
Report 611 24 May 04 Germany - Economy
German banking sector; restructuring to accelerate 2004/5
Report 610 17 May 04 European Central Bank
GDP data reinforces "wait & see" expectation 3 June
Report 609 17 May 04 Germany - Economy
German tax shortfall; SGP breach forecast 2004, but lower growth f/c provides scope for better outlook
Report 608 11 May 04 European Central Bank
Post meeting assessment - ECB now more firmly on hold
Report 607 05 May 04 European Central Bank
ECB interest rate outlook - likely to continue "wait & See"
Report 606 04 May 04 UK Interest Rates
UK - 25bp likely but modest tightening cycle remains in prospect
Report 605 03 May 04 European Central Bank
ECB - inflation estimate - more difficult to justify early interest rate cut
Report 604 27 Apr 04 UK: Euro - Sterling
EU constitutional referendum, different to 1975, puts Euro membership further back
Report 603 21 Apr 04 Germany - Politics
Bundesbank - Weber appointment as President could be significant in medium term
Report 602 20 Apr 04 Germany - Politics
Bundesbank - appointment process & politics, compromise candidate most likely
Report 601 16 Apr 04 Germany - Politics
Bundesbank - assessment of presidential candidates
Report 600 14 Apr 04 Germany - Reform
Change signalled in policy towards east, potential for higher growth trajectory
Report 599 08 Apr 04 European Central Bank
ECB - door still open for easing
Report 598 07 Apr 04 Germany - Economy
Working hours debate, market forces driving reforms
Report 597 02 Apr 04 France - Politics
Govt reshuffle disappointing for reform process but Sarkozy move to Finance Ministry encouraging
Report 596 31 Mar 04 European Central Bank
Increased potential for easing
Report 595 31 Mar 04 Germany - Economy
Sectoral Outlook: Recovery at crossroads
Report 594 30 Mar 04 France - Politics
French elections - Raffarin possible casualty, reformist course to continue
Report 593 29 Mar 04 UK Economy - Interest Rates
No crash for house prices, cautious interest rate tightening 2004/5
Report 592 15 Mar 04 European Central Bank
Early ECB easing unlikely as reaction to Spanish terror attack
Report 591 15 Mar 04 Spain -Politics
PSOE election win negative for Spanish assets
Report 590 12 Mar 04 Greece -Politics
Economic reform prospects boosted by new govt
Report 589 09 Mar 04 European Central Bank
ECB policy firmly on hold in H1 unless external shock changes inflation outlook
Report 588 09 Mar 04 Germany -Politics
CDU/CSU proposals signal commitment to strategic reform agenda
Report 587 02 Mar 04 Germany -Politics
CDU Hamburg win; positive for reform agenda
Report 586 29 Feb 04 European Central Bank
ECB policy to remain unchanged 04Mar, market speculation premature
Report 585 27 Feb 04 Germany -Politics: Client Alert
Hamburg election, Sunday - Important test for Schröder reform agenda
Report 584 23 Feb 04 Italy - Politics
Parmalat - Tremonti secures position, but potential negative impact on economy
Report 583 20 Feb 04 EU - Regulatory
EU gender neutral life insurance proposal to sustain trend for longer dated bonds
Report 581 11 Feb 04 Germany - Politics
Schröder resignation confirms stall in reform process
Report 580 10 Feb 04 Spain - Politics
Rajoy set to win third term for PP, policy to continue in Aznar's footsteps
Report 579 09 Feb 04 Foreign Exchange
G7 meeting - euro and sterling appreciation likely
Report 578 02 Feb 04 UK - Interest Rates
UK tightening cycle likely to be more modest than consensus
Report 577 02 Feb 04 Germany - Economy; Equities - Sectoral Outlook
Impact of global recovery feeding through to Germany but domestic demand low, euro strength oppresses
Briefing 204 27 Jan 04 European Central Bank
ECB shift in focus & potential for intervention to defend $1.30
Briefing 104 22 Jan 04 Euro - Exchange Rates
Eurozone exchange rate policy - markets will exploit confusion until intervention or an ECB interest rate easing materialises
Report 576 19 Jan 04 Euro - Economy
Implications of a weaker dollar for the euro area and ECB - why this is different from 1987/1988
Report 575 23 Dec 03 Euro - Politics
Brussels IGC failure suggests multi-speed EU as likely outcome, EU setback rather than disaster
Report 574 19 Dec 03 European Central Bank
Euro rise puts intervention, policy easing back on ECB agenda
Report 573 10 Dec 03 Germany - Economy
German Agenda 2010 may offer E16bn GDP boost
Report 572 03 Dec 03 Euro - Economy
Ecofin fudge on Stability & Growth Pact paves way for further difficulties for future euro area entrants
Report 571 03 Dec 03 European Central Bank
ECB early upside rate error possible despite euro rise
Report 570 28 Nov 03 Germany - Economy
Moderate German 2004 wage round to dampen ECB concerns, implications for equities, bonds
Report 569 21 Nov 03 European Central Bank
ECB concerned over euro area boost to global liquidity
Report 568 13 Nov 03 Euro-Economy
Unworkable Stability Pact to survive despite French vote
Report 567 12 Nov 03 France-Politics
French government reshuffle likely soon; Raffarin, reforms to stay
Report 566 11 Nov 03 Germany-Economy
CDU/Merz German tax plans may bring Laffer growth-boost
Report 565 30 Oct 03 European Central Bank
ECB concerns over M3 inflation risks undercut
Report 564 28 Oct 03 Germany-Politics
German reform momentum grows with alternative to social market
Report 563 23 Oct 03 European Central Bank
Quiet ECB presidency handover; further 2003 rate moves unlikely
Report 562 21 Oct 03 Italy-Politics
Ruptures within Italian coalition: public spending to run out of control
Report 561 15 Oct 03 Germany-Economy
German economy; evidence of firming recovery but risk of 2004 GDP growth fall toward 1%y
Report 560 13 Oct 03 France - Banque de France
Two main Trichet succession candidates offer different monetary outlooks
Report 559 10 Sep 03 Euro-Politics
US/UK political disarray may boost euro, sparking ECB intervention
Report 558 03 Oct 03 European Central Bank
Trichet to boost ECB pragmatism; Issing M3 concerns overplayed
Report 557 24 Sep 03 Germany-Politics
Bavarian election win for Stoiber/CSU holds plus points for Schröder and SPD reform program
Report 556 19 Sep 03 Euro-enlargement
Volatile capital flows to threaten accession nations' approach to euro
Report 555 16 Sep 03 Germany-Economy
German banking turns the corner but further restructuring to hinder sector's development
Report 554 09 Sep 03 European Central Bank
Wider assessment of liquidity to take in credit analysis shows an expansion likely to prevent further easing in this cycle
Report 553 05 Sep 03 Euro-Economy
Probable Swedish 'no' to euro should boost krona, bonds
Report 552 01 Sep 03 Germany-Economy
Euro, investment, credit to hamper German recovery
Report 551 27 Aug 03 European Central Bank
Expectations that the European Central Bank will make a further easing in its key minimum bid rate should be carefully reviewed after the summer. Euro area monetary conditions around US Labor Day are near to completely neutral
Report 550 26 Aug 03 Euro-Sterling
UK on course toward euro despite probable Sweden rejection
Report 549 24 Jul 03 European Central Bank
ECB confirms potential for further easing remains
Report 548 22 Jul 03 Spain-Politics
Planning for Spain's 2004 general election starts time line for campaign, Aznar successor emerges
Report 547 15 Jul 03 Germany-Economy
Eichel attempts to balance German federal budget to be unsuccessful
Report 546 08 Jul 03 European Central Bank
ECB conferences to illuminate new strategy, deflation stress
Report 545 02 Jul 03 Germany-Politics
Turning point for union power in Germany reached - asset implications for German stocks vs bonds
Report 544 30 Jun 03 Euro-Politics
EU Summit sets 'final' Europe size at 34 nations
Report 543 25 Jun 03 European Central Bank
Pragmatic Trichet to bring more ECB integration - two part assessment of the potential impact of the Trichet appointment (2)
Report 542 24 Jun 03 European Central Bank
Trichet to be surer hand at ECB helm - two part assessment of the potential impact of the Trichet appointment (1)
Report 541 18 Jun 03 Italy-Politics
Berlusconi considers early national elections, political instability re-appears, potential threat to leadership role during Italian 2H03 EU presidency
Report 540 17 Jun 03 Germany-Economy
German tax reform plans advanced, budget deficit to rise towards 4% of GDP
Report 539 13 Jun 03 Euro-Politics
EU Convention draft constitution signals new will for'deepening', underpinning euro, area dynamics
Report 538 11 Jun 03 Euro-Sterling
UK euro-entry review to spark GBP fall toward 80p, increasing pressure on ECB
Report 537 06 Jun 03 European Central Bank
ECB cut shows new stress on economy, deflation concerns (2)
Report 536 05 Jun 03 European Central Bank
ECB obliged to cut by euro rise, deepening credit crunch (1)
Report 535 29 May 03 Euro-Economy
Euro area GDP growth correlation with Germany holds firmas latter heads into technical recession
Report 534 28 May 03 Germany-Politics
German SPD to back reforms but govt, crisis likely by autumn 2004
Report 533 27 May 03 Spain-Politics
Strong showing in regional/municipal ballot boost chances of PP win in Spain 2004 general election
Report 532 23 May 03 Euro-Economy
Euro inflation set to fall more than ECB thinks as further strengthening of euro/dollar cuts import prices , boosts bonds
Report 531 22 May 03 Euro-Economy
Euro/dollar to overshoot 1.20, stop before 1.30 (1) implications for ECB and Schroeder
Report 530 19 May 03 Euro-Economy
German, French budget problems to bring Pact suspension, implications for longterm growth and related stocks
Report 529 14 May 03 France-Economy
France excessive deficit procedure conflicts with budget priorities; likely to backfire on Brussel